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Previous research has shown how statistical model checking can be used with human task behavior modeling and human reliability analysis to make realistic predictions about human errors and error rates. However, these efforts have not accounted for the impact that design changes can have on human reliability. In this research, we address this deficiency by using similarity theory from human cognitive modeling. This replicates how negative transfer can cause people to perform old task behaviors on modified systems. We present details about how this approach was realized with the PRISM model checker and the enhanced operator function model. We report results of a validation exercise using an application from the literature. We discuss the implications of our results and describe future research. 

A forcing function is an intervention for constraining human behavior. However, the literature describing forcing functions provides little guidance for when and how to apply forcing functions or their associated trade-offs. In this paper, we address these shortcomings by introducing a novel taxonomy of forcing functions. This taxonomy extends the previous methods in four ways. First, it identifies two levels of forcing function solidity: hard forcing functions, which explicitly enforce constraints through the system, and soft forcing functions, which convey or communicate constraints. Second, each solidity level is decomposed into specific types. Third, the taxonomy hierarchically ranks forcing function solidities and types based on trade-offs of constraint and resilience. Fourth, for hard forcing functions, our taxonomy offers formal guidance for identifying the minimally constraining intervention that will prevent a specific error from occurring. We validated the ability of our method to identify effective error interventions by applying it to systems with known errors from the literature. We then compared the solutions offered by our method to known, effective interventions. We discuss our results and offer suggestions for further developments in future research.